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Citizen Weekly

Monday, 7 July 2014


Panicking over former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's political furore across the country's political landscape,President Uhuru Kenyatta's innercore, with his blessings, has embarked on what is termed as countermeasures to stop Cord's frontal onslaught on the establishment.

The counter response has been designed into two phases-all aimed at making sure that is Raila and his allies will not have fizzled out or better, decided to recognize his authority and acted accordingly, they are rendered irrelevant by 2017.

Phase one has been dubbed as sub plot and it is this phase that is to be implemented to overtly counter and seek to make inconsequential ultimately Cord's activities across the country including the much publicised Saba Saba rally at Uhuru Park.

Raila is to be isolated by spreading political propaganda likely to divide the now reloaded Cord or opposition political aggressiveness which is giving the president and his deputy William Ruto sleepless nights.

Political propaganda machinery will go full throttle to claim Raila if fooling former vice-president Kalonzo and Senator Moses Wetang'ula into their new found love.

Allegations that Raila is not willing to step down for either Musyoka or Wetang'ula come the next presidential elections will emerge as questions will also be raised on how Cord is bound to carry out its presidential nominations in case Raila does not retire from active politics and decide who to run for the presidency.

Propaganda that Raila is under pressure from his allies, mostly hardliners to go for his final presidential bid will emerge prominently on the country's political scene and the idea is to put a wedge between Cord principals to dismantle and divide its unity.

We have information that a budget, running into millions has been worked out to give Raila and Cord news coverage blackouts in media houses.Fear has been that the newsmen have been giving Raila and his rallies which are well attended prominent coverage and TV footage, as a result voters are being swayed to support Cord activities.

Ever since he returned into the country after a three-month stint in America, Raila has reignited a political storm and received more coverage in preint and electronic media then Uhuru and Ruto combined.

In fact, it is said, the live coverage by television stations of his arrival rally at Uhuru Park that was attended by a sea of supporters did not go down well in certain quarters and to complicate matters, come the following day newspapers splashed the rally.

The controversy that surrounded the Eldoret rally at 64 Stadium was expected to have a negative impact on attendance, however the rally was well attended.

Eldoret is the home turf of Ruto and is also heavily inhabited by immigrants from Central province, the president's backyard.

Many had expected the Cord rally to fail but it turned out the opposite.Aware of the power of information in political arena, something has to be done.

Already, journalists seen to be sympathetic to Raila are marked.Joe Odindo, a man who was to be Raila's head of presidential press service had he won the 2013 race, has been sent packing at the Nation Media Group's editorial director.

Then we have the isolation theory.Here, we have information that legislators, Senators and governors who were elected on Cord allied parties are to be brought on board.

They will be prevailed upon to skip Cord rallies and come out openly to denounce Raila and his co-principals.Indeed, it is claimed that Cord's minority leader Francis Nyenze and his deputy Jakoyo Midiwo are secret visitors to State House.The MPs are reportedly quietly following the suit.

The isolation bid is well calculated and schemed and will be implemented in stages with Jubilee politicians allocated various regions.

Leader of majority in parliament Aden Duale, is the man in charge of Eastern side of Ukambani.Duale was in Machakos county accompanied by a number of MPs who attacked Cord planned rallies.

In Ukambani, governor Alfred Mutua has been brought on board by Land minister Charity Ngilu and other politicians earmarked are Francis Mwangangi of Yatta who already is unapologetically working with Uhuru,Munyao Kisoi, Mbooni, Regina Ndambuki, Kilome, Patrick Musimba, Kibwezi, Richard Katemi Makenga, Victor Munyaka, Machakos town, Vincent Musyoka, Mwala, Itwiku Mbai, Masinga among others.
Mavoko MP Patrick Makau is acught up in between given that his constituency happens to have Luo and Luhyas hence playing a safe political game plan.

Jubilee has also made forays in Mombasa.During a rally at Tononoka, Coastal MPs were absent with Uhuru himself said to be taking charge of coast politics.

After the Mpeketoni attacks, he hosted the region's politicians at State House and pledged to embark on peace process in the area.

To puncture Cord alliance, Uhuru handlers have lured Gideon Mung'aro, the opposition chief whip on their side.The trick has worked well and Mung'aro is reading from a different political script.

Wrangling in Cord coalition is taking the centerstage after MPs from the Coast emerged from a lenghty meeting with the resolution that Mung'aro would not be replaced as the chief whip.

The decision to remove Mung'aro was made at the Cord retreat at the Great Rift Valley Lodge.

Omar Mwinyi, Changamwe and Rashid Bedzimba, Kisauni led the Coast MPs in backing Mung'aro and Coast MPs have threatened to start working with Jubilee in case Mung'aro is removed.

At the Tononoka rally, three Cord MPs Abdulswmad Sharriff Nassir, Mvita, Rashid Bedzimba, Kisauni and Likoni's Masoud Mwahima  were conspicuously absent.

The three are said to have fallen out with Mombasa governor Hassan Joho, a Raila point-man and political strategist in the region.Abdulswamad was supposed to host the Cord leaders in his constituency where the rally took place.

In Kisii politics, the story is similar.Brought to board to counter Raila support in the region is Ford-People associated with former cabinet minister Simeon Nyachae.

During last week's Kisii rally, a number of MPs allied to Cord skipped the function and it is onyl Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire who attended the rally.

Word has it that Jubilee has penetrated to MPs using Kitutu Chache South MP Richard Onyonka who is labelled a rebel .

Kisii region has Zebedeo Opere Bonchari of Ford People, Jimmy Angweny- Kitutu Chache North, TNA, Stephen Kengere-ODM, Bobasi, Simon Ogare-Bomachoge,Chache, Cord, Elijah Musomi- Nyaribari Massaba, Narc-Kenya, Ben Momanyi,-Borabu, Cord.

In the neighbouring Maasai politics, Raila has lost one of his key pointment William Ole Ntimama.Joseph Nkaissery also allied to ODM was a notable absentee during Narok rally.

Word has it that the State House meeting between Uhuru and leading Maasai opposition leaders has been rescheduled and anytime Ntimama may be at State House with his team.

This is happening as Ruto has been advised to consolidate his Kalenjin power base by meeting rebellious professionals, businessmen and politicians.

He held meetings with businessmen Joshua Kulei, David Langat, Joshua Chepkwony and Simwoto just days before Cord was in Eldoret for its rally at 64 stadium.

In Luhyaland, pressure is to have Wetang'ula abandon Cord.At the same time, Uhuru will work out on new modalities to accommodate Musalia Mudavadi and Eugene Wamalwa.Uhuru is said to be aware in Luhya politics,his deputy is a major headache.

Talk of any Luhya politician, professional,university student and a common man in the village on who is frustrating the community in Jubilee and the name of Ruto crops up.

To the majority, Uhuru has a soft spot for the community but it is his deputy who is out to cut him down to size in the region.But why is Ruto being accused of frustrating the Luhya community in Jubilee government?

Analysts say that Ruto is aware the numerical strength of the Luhya community compared to his own.Further is the Kikuyu factor.

Fear is , if a Luhya is brought on board, they will have a better bargain power base and Kikuyu are likely to back them in Uhuru succession game.

Ruto's strategists thus do not want ambitious personalities from Luhyaland in Jubilee to inherit the influential Kikuyu vote bloc.

With no formidable opponent in Jubilee as things stand now, Ruto sees a clear road-map to State House.However, analysts say from now to 2017, political power games are bound to emerge which is likely to have far-reaching implications on a number of prominent politicians.

Further, it is said, if Uhuru and Ruto win the next general elections, it is not a must Uhuru will front Ruto to be his successor.This is on grounds that Kenya's political terrain is fluid and keeps on changing now and then.

A good scenario given is in 2002 during the Moi succession and 2013 when the country witnessed the Kibaki succession race.

The Nyanza equation:Here Uhuru is said to be handling it with a lot of care.Unlike his father, the late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and the Moi regime which isolated the Luos, he wants to accommodate them and consolidate  his power base in the region.

This is on the understanding that Raila is facing rebellion in his own command post.To Uhuru men, Raila's political word is not taken wholesome by local voters any more.

Uhuru is said to be targeting working with Luo moderates whereas Raila is said to be playing an ethnic game plan of pitting Kenyan tribes against the dominant 42 tribes together and isolate the Odinga family and his allies in Luo politics.

To him, the fight should be between the Odinga and Kenyatta families which have duelled since 1960s.

Already, talk has it that Raila has isolated Mt. Kenya region in his planned countrywide rallies which is suspect.

To show that he has no bone to pick with Luos, he is to make frequent developments visits and is likely to attend the burial of Raila's mother-in-law who passed on last week in Migori.

The president sent a message of condolence to the bereaved family.

An advice he got from Moi is that he should open State House for all and host delegations from all corners of the republic who will take a good word on him to the grassroots.

Uhuru is said to be aware that the current happenings in the opposition can either break or make him ahead of 2017 as nothing is ever as it seems on the surface in Kenyan politics.

It is said the three Cord principals have to be marked and although they seem like a team today, that will not always be the case.

This is on the understanding that Kenyans can well remember that in 2007-08 Raila, Mudavadi, Ruto, Najib Balala who no longer belong together today, looked like the most formidable opposition ever, ready to deny Mwai Kibaki a second term. At that time, Kalonzo was firmly a spoiler for Raila and facilitator for Kibaki.

The lion's share of the rebrand being done today belongs to Raila, in his newfound status of Baba.Although Kalonzo acted as a spoiler for Raila in the 2007 presidential contest, he repaid him handsomely by taking Ukambani Eastern to him on a political platter in 2013 polls.

Wetang'ula also energized the Luhya, Kenya's second most populous community into supporting Raila 2013.

 The big question now is in what order will the Cord principals line up for the 2017 contest that will involve preventing Uhuru from a second term at State House?

Inside Cord, who will ask for his 2013 favour to be returned first-Kalonzo ro Wetang'ula?Or will they agree to back Raila again.

Wetang'ula has two claims that he can make for the 2017 Cord presidential ticket.One he has never made a bid for it unlike Kalonzo. Two, he has the country's biggest single ethnic vote bloc after the Kikuyu.

The truth of the matter is that in purely statistical terms, it does not matter who heads the Cords 2017 vote hunt, only that the coalition remain united and focused behind one single candidate.However personal ambition at the top is everything.

President Barack Obama will have left the White House long before the August 2017 presidential poll.

When he by-passed Kenya in June 2013 and spent two- and-a-half days in Tanzania, Obama chose Tanzania's Jakaya Kikwete to be his poitman in the larger eastern and central African region.

What's more, the worst kept secret in Kenya is that Kikwete prefers Kalonzo by far over Raila and often recommends the man from Tseikuru over the man from Bondo in his secret communications and face-to-face closed-door communications with the Obama administration.

The trick the Cord principals have up their sleeves or which as is most likely only Raila is privy to, is to effect regime change through ''direct democracy'' tactics, strategies and mechanisms, and claim it was the people who ousted the Jubilee regime.It sounds like a brilliant maneuver.

Insiders say Raila has kept Uhuru guessing on his next moves, phase two plots will be excuted once he learns of his plans.

We have information that a special security network has been established to monitor Raila activities and how to bring him down politically.

It even involves key players in his kitchen cabinet being invited to State House and already it is being whispered in certain quarters that those who surrounded Raila while he enjoyed the powers of prime minister are feeling the cold and pushing him in his latest moves to run for the presidency in 2017.