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Citizen Weekly

Sunday, 15 March 2015

Why Joho could lose coveted seat

Charles Obare

Mombasa county politics is at crossroads following the defection of Suleiman Shahbal and former Changamwe MP Ramadhan Kajembe of Wiper and ODM respectively to the new Jubilee Alliance Party.
To complicate matters is the declaration of Nyali MP Hezron Awiti  to the effect that he will run for governorship on ODM. If Awiti leaves the parliamentary seat, Tony Light Yogo and a number of  politicians will square it out.
 To penetrate Mombasa county, Jap plans to have Shahbal go for governor and, Kajembe for senator. Joho is said to have favoured Mcharo as ODM face after pushing out Yogo in 2013 party nominations.
By joining Jap, Shabhal plot is to win the Kikuyus who voted for Mwaura the TNA candidate in 2013. To win the upcountry vote, Shabhal is eyeing a one Lunani a Luhya to be his running mate. In 2013, Joho had beaten Shabhal with around 30,000 votes. With Awiti out to run against Joho, the Luo vote is bound to be split.
As things stand, Joho cannot decamp to Jap with analysts saying, two camps will play a major role in coast politics. That is Cord versus Jap. For Joho, his undoing maybe that his main financiers brother Abu Joho and tycoon Ali Punjani are not enjoying good business deals with Jubilee government. Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto are said to have been briefed the duo financed Raila Odinga presidential campaigns to the tune of Sh50 million. The declaration by Uhuru not to entertain drug barons and the destroying of a ship linked to drugs has not worked well for the tycoons.
In 2013 polls,   Joho and Shahbal were in ODM. But fearing he was to be fixed due to Joho family links, with the Odingas, Shahbal defected to Musalia Mudavadi’s UDF. However, his allies advised him in UDF he had goofed hence his move to Cord using Kalonzo Musyoka’s WDM.
Shabhal using his fortunes is said to financed his camp that had Hassan Omar, Afia Rama, Philip Ndolo,  Hezron Awiti ,  Badi Twalib, Jackie Almasi, Fahad Kassim and Mohammed Thenge. Now that Awiti wants to challenge Joho, analysts see Shabhal’s secret plot to rock Cord from within as he schemes for 2017.
The 2013 Joho side that compromised Ramadhan Kajembe, Mishi Mboko, Mwalimu Mwahima, Rashid Bedzimba, John Mcharo, Omar Mwinyi and Abdullswamad Nassir is divided down the middle with a number  finding solace in Jubilee courtesy of Ruto. The DP is said not to have time for Joho whom he claims as among those Raila used to frustrate him when in ODM.
Joho garnered 132,583 votes against Shahbal’s 94,905. Others were Abdalla Mwaruwa of TNA who got 17,335 votes, Chibule Watsuma of Kadu Asili (2,258), Ibrahim Khamis Athman of RC (10,124), Lawrence Kamau Macharia of PDU (1,064), Isaac Malila of ND (1,368) and Mtana Lewa of IND who got 9,045 votes.
In the senatorial race, Hassan garnered 130,605 votes, Alice Sheme of TNA (13,303), Hassan Mwakimako of UDFP (5,370), Najib Balala of RC (65,804) and Ramadhan Seif Kajembe of ODM (52,773).
For the women rep, Mishi Khamisi of ODM garnered 124,812 votes, Janet Mbete of CCU (7,245), Afia Rama of WDMK (13,427), Florence Kahindi of UDFP (14,606), Khadija Abdallah Muhsin of TNA (30,006),
Margaret Akoth Olang of Ford-K (8,752), Maryam Hussein of NVP (4,377), Naima Badhawi of KNC (13,385), Serah Maingi (RBK) and Sureya Roble of RC who garnered 34,774 votes.
ODM coast MPs are in catch-22 with a section tilting towards Jap while others are in Cord to stay. ODM is said to be slowly losing grip in the area politics while others say, the way the government is dealing with the radical Muslim groups has seen it lose support to Cord. The Muslim factor plays a major role in coast politics.
That Cord commanded sway in 2013 is well seen by the results for both governorship, senator and parliamentary.
In Changamwe, Omar Mwinyi of ODM won the seat with 15,923 votes, David Kyalo of URP (3,083), Francis Oduor of FPK (2,007), Godfrey Nengo of Ford-Kenya (451), Patrick Ngugi of The Independent Party (197), Peterson Mittau of TNA (4,104), and Philip Ndolo of WDM (11,891).
For the Jomvu seat Twalib Bady of WDM won with 11,907 votes, Seif Ramadhan Kajembe of ODM (7,263), Abeid Juma of Kadu Asili (369), John Kilonzo of URP (1,732), Leonard Nzioka of Mazingira Party (171), Mohamed Faki of UDF (3,281), Mbuli Omar of RCPK (1,997), Paul Mihulo of Narc-K(1,081), Said Mwakama of TNA (2,476) and Samuel Kagechu of National Congress who got 1,732 votes.
In Kisauni, Rashid Juma of ODM garnered 26,793 votes, Abdalla Amina of UDF (2,341), Anania Mwaboza of URP (4,699), Caleb Ngwena of NVP (283), Daniel Munyasia of New Democrats (653), Fahad Abdalla of WDM (8,716), Pius Mbashu of Kadu Asili (1,432), Said Abdallah of TNA (5,296) and Swaleh Juma of RC who garnered 743 votes.
In Nyali, Awiti Bolo of WDM won with 19,436 votes, Abirijah Kennogha of URP (458), Alfred Akisa of Independent Party (498), Chrispinus Aleri of Federal party (277), Francis Kimburi of KNC (510), John Mcharo of ODM (15,177), Said Abed of UDF (3,269), Yasir Noor of TNA (12,417) and Yasser Sheikh of Ford-K who got 421 votes.
In Likoni, Mwalimu Mwahima of ODM won with 18,258 votes, Bernard Odhiambo of The Independent Party (6,325), Jackie Bwire of WDM (909), Khamis Domoko of CCU (2,544), Mfaume Bakari of TNA (1,452), Patricia Mugalla of New Democrats (500), and Suleiman Shakombo of URP who got 7,009 votes.
In Mvita, Abdul Nassir of ODM won with 34,491 votes, Abbas Mohamed of CCU (421), Abdalla Miraj of TNA (6,234), Mohamed S. Mohamed of WDM (3,360), MohamMed Dory of UPK (10,525), and Patrick Alfred of Narc-K (1,134), Shekue Sharif of URP who got 2,360 votes.
In the presidential race, Raila Odinga of ODM garnered 189,985 (69.7pc), Uhuru Kenyatta of TNA 64,793 (23.7pc) and Musalia Mudavadi of UDF 4,500 (1.6pc).