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Citizen Weekly

Sunday 27 July 2014


Pressure on Uhuru to strike deal with Mudavadi
There is mounting pressure on President Uhuru Kenyatta to strike a political deal with Musalia Mudavadi ahead of the 2017 polls.

In fact, sources say, Uhuru allies not comfortable with his current deputy William Ruto to be his running mate in the next election, want him to convince Mudavadi to be his deputy in 2017 and marshal the Luhya vote. This is on the understanding that come 2023, it will be easier to sell Mudavadi among the Mt Kenya vote compared to Ruto. Mudavadi enjoys support across the country as a sober politician.

We have information that those scheming for Uhuru second term at State House are worried that with the current political events in the country, the president is might be a one-term occupier of the presidency.

Further, to complicate matters, word has it that Mudavadi is planning to lead his United Democratic Forum to Cord.
Those pushing for Mudavadi to be Uhuru running mate argue that if Uhuru dumps Ruto in his favour, the Luhya will be in government in 2017-2022 and then inherit the powerful seat with the backing of Mt Kenya vote bloc.

Already, the Luhya community has been complaining of being sidelined in key government positions and being targeted by the URP wing in Jubilee.
Sources well versed with the scheme aver that Mudavadi wants to be convinced to the effect that as Uhuru’s deputy, it will only take five years to be in the high office rather than run for presidency in 2017 then lose to either Jubilee or Cord. He will be forced to wait for another 10 years and the possibility of him being relevant then is remote.

Political historical happenings between Uhuru and Mudavadi are being pinpointed to advance this scheme. In 2002, Mudavadi was Uhuru’s running mate on a Kanu ticket but they were defeated with a combined force of the Narc that brought together retired president Mwai Kibaki, the late Wamalwa Kijana, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth and Najib Balala.

Come 2007, Mudavadi was in ODM as Uhuru did not run for presidency and instead backed Kibaki. Come 2013, Mudavadi parted ways with Uhuru just months to election, after the president had agreed to step down for him in Jubilee fearing the Cord wave. It is said Uhuru’s decision to run was as a result of pressure from Ruto who was then uncomfortable with Mudavadi’s presidency.

But whereas Uhuru was comfortable with Mudavadi’s presidency, to Ruto, Mudavadi was not reliable when it came to International Criminal Court case facing the two.
That Uhuru is under pressure to work with Mudavadi is seen by the way he handles the Mudavadi factor in Jubilee as at the same time the Ruto one. The president is said to also beconsidering the ICC proceedings on his deputy.

Since it is the ICC that brought them together, Uhuru does not want to be seen to be openly going against Ruto as he works on 2017 power win deal. Talk has it that whatever way the ICC case takes, Uhuru will then make a political move that is bound to cause ripples both nationally and internationally. 

Informed sources say that Uhuru is well aware of all allegations and claims Ruto is misleading him or he is a slave of URP, as he governs Kenya. Whereas his hands are tied up by the 50-50 power sharing understanding, the ICC matter is his big headache. To the president, once the ICC ghost is shaken off with prayers it will favour those accused, then things will take a different route and turn that will shake the political realignment in the country.

Legal experts say that Uhuru’s case at the ICC is not as complicated as that of Ruto. They argue, as things stand now, the prosecution wants to introduce bribery of witnesses against Ruto and that is why it is pushing for those who had refused giving evidence to do so with the help of the Kenya government.

Almost eight witnesses backed off and journalist Walter Barasa is facing extradition to Hague. He is accused of bribing witnesses on behalf of Ruto.
On the side of Uhuru, the case has failed to kick off due to lack of witnesses. The government is also under pressure from the prosecution to hand over confidential documents relating to president’s bank accounts. Back to Ruto, the case involving the grabbing of a land in Uasin Gishu in which he has been found guilty of but he has petitioned compounded matters for him.
Talk within Cord since the arrival of Raila Odinga from America as it pushes for a national referendum is that, one of the accused persons will have to be jailed.

If it happens, blame games are bound to emerge in the ruling government and eventually collapse it. It is on these grounds Raila anticipates to sneak to power by holding his Cord team together in form of championing for a referendum as he awaits the ICC ruling.

On the other hand, Uhuru strategists are well informed of Raila and Cord principals current thinking. They are privy to the talk within Cord; even Charles Taylor the Liberia former president was jailed by ICC on accounts of one witness.

That Ruto camp is well aware of changing political happenings in the country bearing in mind Uhuru recent visit to Kakamega where he spent a night is seen by undercurrents in URP now.
Already, a section of URP politicians fearing Uhuru may drop Ruto in favour of Mudavadi want him to run for presidency in 2017. MPs have at least met thrice since July to have Uhuru back Ruto in next presidential race.

Concern has been, once Uhuru lands a second term, it is not a guarantee thst he will back Ruto 2022. Others however say Mudavadi might not agree to the gameplan as he fears history will repeat itself and so he could decide to go his own way to benefit from the third force. Others are however urging against this route and say already the 2017 duel is shaping into a two-horse Jubilee-Cord race and Mudavadi will have a hard time carving a niche.

Uhuru, others are telling Mudavadi, cannot be relied on and is bound to play Kibaki games. Kibaki had in 2007 agreed to be a one-term president. To Ruto allies, already, they are being shortchanged in the current government setup.

Aware Uhuru has a soft spot for Mudavadi, Ruto has decided to wage a war on him and the large Luhya community whom he believes is the stumbling block to his journey to presidency.
During the burial of Cyrus Jirongo’s mother in Lugari, the deputy president attacked Mudavadi when he requested to have the government appoint all communities in positions. Ruto told Mudavadi to wait to form his government in 2017 since elections are over and losers should shut up.
This is not the first time Ruto and Mudavadi crossed swords openly. During the homecoming party of Ikolomani MP Bernard Shinali Mudavadi told those present it was not proper to invite outsiders to lecture Luhyas on the need for unity. Ruto was the chief guest and had challenged the community to speak with one voice for the sake of development.

Within UDF, Ruto is being accused of bankrolling MPs to rock the party from within to make Mudavadi look weak. On his payroll is Washiali who is deputy chief whip in parliament courtesy of the DP.

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