Attempts
by President Uhuru Kenyatta to reconcile the family of retired President Daniel
arap Moi and that of the Deputy President William Ruto has finally hit a dead
end, we can authoritatively revel this week.
Uhuru
and his political handlers have been lately concerned over the political
tension in the Rift Valley region which has heightened with the recent
announcement by Kanu that it will sponsor Gideon Moi, the Baringo Senator, to
run for the top seat in 2017.
The
fear within the Uhuru camp is that should Kanu clear Gideon to run against
Uhuru in 2017, then even with Ruto as Uhuru’s running mate, the Kalenjin votes
will be divided and this will be to the advantage of Cord.
Another
concern for Uhuru is that there are so many sideshows on the political front in
Rift Valley and the deep politics development that is unfolding behind the
scenes but which has far-reaching implications for Uhuru’s presidential bid in 2017.
Even
though analysts say that Ruto is not bothered with Gideon’s attempts to wrestle
the Kalenjin control from him, the larger Jubilee family is the most worried
lot since without a block Kalenjin vote, Uhuru is likely to be a one-term
president.
It
is against such fears that Uhuru had reached out for the older Moi to broker a
deal that would see Gideon go slow on Ruto and to have the region leaders
united ahead of 2017 elections. We have however discovered that Uhuru’s attempts
to reconcile the two families had hit a concrete wall.
Analysts
now claim that it was after the failed attempts that Uhuru has of late been
tactically visiting Rift Valley especially in the company of his
deputy.
Early in the month, Uhuru did not attend the Nandi County Investment Forum with
only Ruto attended the highly publicized function held at Kapsabet town.
Uhuru
also cancelled at the eleventh hour his planned trip to Eldoret where he was to
attend the ASK show in Eldoret. It later emerged that Uhuru was not able to
attend the two events because it was not in his diary.
It
has been whispered that Uhuru cancelled a tour to Eldoret town on after he
received intelligence reports that farmers and some local leaders had planned
to confront him with demands on the maize crisis. He was to open the Eldoret
ASK national show and attend other activities for the Uasin Gishu county
government, but the plan was cancelled under unclear circumstances.
Sources
say Uhuru Uhuru and Moi had held close to five meeting in the absence of Ruto
with only Ruto attending one meeting at State House while the rest of the
meetings have either been held at Mois’ Kabarak home or at his Kabarnet Gardens
home in Nairobi.
Uhuru’s
failure to reconcile the two families has got to do with two factors. One, Moi
has never forgiven Ruto for taking away the Kalenjins from Kanu to ODM during
the 2007 elections in which three of his sons including Gideon lost in various
parliamentary elections.
Moi
believes Ruto who is his political student and who owes his political standing
to Moi stole the mandate as Kalenjin leader in 2007 and remarks he made against
Moi in the run-up to the then hotly contested elections have never been
forgotten.
Even
when Uhuru teamed up with Ruto in 2013, Moi had attempted to have Uhuru run on
Kanu ticket with Gideon as running mate but Uhuru handlers did not want to hear
anything to do with Kanu.
Analysts
say that as much as Uhuru is trying to reconcile the two families, it is
unachievable since the elder Moi has never handed him the leadership mantle of
the Kalenjin and does not even want to meet him hence the reason why he has
been conspicuously missing during Uhuru-Moi meetings.
Before
the dust could settle after the failed reconciliation, Bomet governor Isaac Ruto
also declared that he was ready to team up with Gideon to teach Ruto a lesson
in 2017.
The
announcement caught the DP wrong-footed and while in Kapkatet, he issued an
onslaught saying that Kalenjin politicians not singing his tune will be kicked
out in the next election. But Ruto and Gideon in a quick rejoinder laughed off
the warning and promised him a political battle of his lifetime in 2017.
Both
Ruto and Gideon have time and again accused the DP funding their political
rivals, who include MPs and a number of Ward Representatives, to destabilise them
politically.
Uhuru
strategists are however aware of new political realignments in the offing in
Rift Valley ahead of the 2017 election, with Kanu-URP rebels rolling out
strategies to take control of the vote-rich region.
Trouble
for Uhuru now and the reason behind his many attempts to reconcile the Moi-Ruto
families is to avoid a situation whereby Kanu sponsors Gideon as its
presidential flagbearer against him.
Another
reason why Uhuru has taken up the responsibility of bringing the Moi family on
board is the future of the Ruto case at the ICC. Uhuru informers believe that
should Ruto be jailed and with Gideon leading a strong Kanu, the Kalenjin votes
could be as well gone since the Kalenjins would not be comfortable voting with
Jubilee in the absence of Ruto.
It
is also important to take note that although Kanu did not contest the
presidency in 2013, the party still enjoys reasonable following in Rift Valley
and this is something Uhuru and Ruto cannot ignore.
During
the last general elections, despite the URP wave, Kanu won 6 parliamentary
seats in Rift Valley and two senatorial. Despite campaigns by Ruto against
Gideon in Baringo county senatorial race, Gideon managed 124,425 votes against
Ruto’s man Jackson koskei who flew the URP flag and garnered 23,591 votes while
ODM’s candidate Edward Kateiya got a paltry 8,462 votes.
Baringo
County a Kanu stronghold in the 2013 General Election, with Gideon winning the
Senate seat despite vigorous campaigns by Ruto and Uhuru who pitched camp in
Baringo County twice in the run-up to the polls.
But
what is giving Uhuru sleepless nights is the uncertainty over the outcome of
the ICC case facing Ruto and the merger of URP and TNA to form JAP which has
triggering discontent among some members of the Kalenjin community and Rift
Valley voters at large.
Whereas
Ruto has laughed off Gideon’s entry into presidential race, Uhuru and his
handlers know what damage Gideon’s entry into the race can do to Uhuru’s 2017
bid.
As
Uhuru works overtime to bring the Moi family on board, Ruto is said to be busy
plotting on how to clip Ruto’s political wings in Rift Valley also specifically
in Baringo County where Gideon literally controls. AT one time, Ruto was quoted
saying “You must accept to be led,
even if your father led the country for 24 years. Stop dividing the
Kalenjin”.
even if your father led the country for 24 years. Stop dividing the
Kalenjin”.
Investigations
now reeval that the battle lines have also been extended to Baringo County
where URP is allegedly grooming former East Africa Co-operation Minister Musa
Sirma to out-seat the Gideon as senator in 2017 he withdraws from presidential
race to defend his senatorial seat.
Gideon
is also said to be plotting on how his strong men will take on Ruto’s allies in
Baringo. He is said to be grooming the suspended Assembly Speaker William
Kamket to take on the URP MP Asman Kamama. Kamket vied unsuccessfully for the
Tiaty parliamentary seat on a Kanu ticket but lost to URP’s Asman Kamama.
Another
concern of Uhuru and by extension other top Kalenjin politicians and
professionals is whether Ruto can succeed Uhuru in 2022 without Moi’s blessings.
A
story is told that after the Ravine Declaration of 2006 where Ruto declared his
candidature for presidency he and his entourage drove to Moi’s Kabarak home to
seek blessings. It is alleged that Moi didn’t open the gate for them for he
knew Ruto was not up to the task. Todate Moi has never changed his mind.
Last
week, Moi has dismissed reports alleging he met with Uhuru and Ruto at State
House Nairobi. This happened at a time when Ruto claimed that his political
rivals led by Gideon and Ruto were rejoicing about his ICC tribulations.
Those
who have been following the Kalenjin politics as they unfold will agree that Gideon
has identified Ruto’s weaknesses in government and has been using them to
attack the DP during his countrywide meet-the-people tours on the DP’s home
turf.
The
issues include claims that the DP has been reluctant to bring pressure to bear
for better pricing of maize in the North Rift and tea prices in the South Rift,
as well as his lack of steam to push for a whole raft of pre-election campaign
pledges to the region.
It
is now said that for Uhuru to reconcile the two families, he must also reach
out to individuals from within the Baringo County. Names that are being flouted
that could see the deal brokered successfully includes those of Benjamin Cheboi
(Baringo governor), Joshua Kulei (former President Moi’s private secretary), Daniel
Kibelion who is a prominent businessman and the proprietor of the Kibelion
Hotel in Emining a popular tourist destination and Asman Kamama (MP for Tiaty).
Others
are Moses Lessonet (Eldama Ravine), William Cheptumo (Baringo North), Prof
Hellen Sambili, Sammy Mwaita (Baringo Central), Grace Kiptui (Baringo County
Women’s Representative), Grace Kipchoim (Baringo South), Musa Sirma, Leut Gen
Joseph Kasaon, Rtd Gen Daudi Tonje, Phyllis Kandie (Cabinet Secretary for East
African Affairs, Commerce and Tourism), Amb Lucy Chelimo, Prof James Tuitoek, Alicen
Chelaite, Eric Kotut who is the former Central Bank governor and is one of the
key businessmen in Baringo who has invested heavily in the flower sector and Dr.
Edward Sambili.
But
even Uhuru seems to be willing to work with Ruto and his allies in 2017 and
even beyond, Ruto allies are not comfortable with Uhuru’s close links with
Gideon and the Moi family. Uhuru’s strageists are said to have advised him to
groom Gideon should the ICC jail Ruto or should Ruto decide to run against him
in 2017.
To
show how close Uhuru and Gideon are and to begin with, the Mois and the
Kenyattas have a long history and an interesting future that is already
unfolding in the ongoing power struggle.
Gideon
has accompanied Uhuru to Sudan and AU summits in Ethiopia as well as to the
billionaire playgrounds of Dubai to watch the elitist Formula One motor racing
sport. Uhuru accompanied Gideon to the famous Kimalel goat auction where Ruto’s
absence was conspicous.
Eyebrows
shot up throughout the diplomatic community in June 2014, when the United
Nations Environment Assembly opened its Segment Summit and Gideon was given the
official protocol duties of escorting Prince Albert II of Monaco, who attended
the world environmental body’s four-day conference in Nairobi.
It
was not lost on observers that Gideon escorted Albert II even to social
functions and on his outings from the business of the summit. Like Albert II,
Gideon is a polo enthusiast.
This
unique protocol duty at Uhuru’s request underscored those meetings that the
head of state has had with both Gideon and Mzee Moi at the latter’s Kabarnet
Gardens residence and elsewhere.
It
was also no surprise that it was Gideon himself who recommended Uhuru for the
award of the honourary Doctor of Leadership degree at Kabarak University’s
10th graduation ceremony.