Has Cord leader Raila Odinga lost
his grip in Kisii politics? This is the question that is in the lips of
political analysts after Cord lost the Bonachari by-election last month to
Ford-People.
ODM has been commanding huge
support in Kisii region which voted overwhelmingly for Raila Odinga in last
year’s General Elections but the surprise change of fortunes has sent the whole
party brigade back to the drawing board.
Although Raila got close to 80pc
of presidential votes in the last general elections, analysts say it is high
time he went back to the drawing board to lay fresh strategies ahead of the
2017 elections. As things stand now, the alliance’s support is dwindling day
and night if the results of the three by-elections are anything to go by and
which points to its waning influence in the region.
Last month, the coalition lost
the Bonchari seat after its flag-bearers John Oyioka (ODM) and Wiper's Charles
Onyancha garnered 6,977 and 5,171 votes respectively. The seat was won by
Zebedeo Opore of Ford-People who got 10,947 votes. Ford-People is an affiliate
of Jubilee Coalition.
In the March 4 2013 General
Election last year, Zebedeo Opore of Ford People won the seat with 8,992 votes
while Oyioka of Kanu emerged second with 8,987 votes, Charles Onyancha ODM,
6,897 and Albert Monyancha Wiper, 160 votes.
Is it therefore a question of
Cord losing popularity in Kisii or is it because ODM and WDM sponsored candidates
to vie against each other? According to ODM leaders, the loss can be squarely
blamed on WDM who sponsored a candidate despite knowing that Bonachri and Kisii
by extension is an ODM stronghold.
Cord leaders now claim that Cord
is the dominant party in the larger Abagusii region but blame this on disagreements
between Wiper and ODM and discord among local leaders.
The other loss is the the
Nyaribari Chache seat in a by-election last year after ODM's Chris Bichage was
trounced by Ford People's Richard Tongi. The Ford People victory in the
Nyaribari Chache by-election was a wake-up call for ODM to save its dwindling
fortunes in Kisii region. In the Bomachoge Borabu by-election ODM's Peter
Kimori lost to The National Alliance's (TNA) Joel Onyancha.
For the Bonchari seat, sources
now say that the fight for ODM ticket cost the party in the by-election. The
first mistake ODM did was to ditch Onyancha for Oyioka. Sources say after being
given direct nomination, most of the ODM leaders in the region including Kisii
Senator Chris Obure and Women Representative Sally Otara withdrew their support
and secretly campaigned for Onyancha.
Mathematically, had Cord fielded
one candidate, it could have swept clean majority votes. If ODM's Oyioka who
garnered 6,977 votes and Wiper's Onyancha 5,171 votes had agreed to let one of
them be the CORD flag bearer their 12,148 votes combined would have beat Opore
who got 10,947.
But ODM now blames it on Wiper
leader Kalonzo Musyoka who cleared Onyancha despite having knowledge that ODM
is popular than Wiper in Kisii going by the number of seats ODM won in the last
General Election.
As things stands now, it is now
evident that a new political wind is blowing in the Abagusii land and this is
now in favour of Ford-people party which has now won two of the three
by-elections held in the region with TNA winning one seat.
Cord Kisii leadership is now
divided right in the middle and this explains why during the Saba Saba rally no
notable Kisii politician was present. Kisii CORD allied governors, senators and
women representatives and MPs were no where to be seen during the rally.
The same scenario was witnessed
during Raila’s rally in Kisii where most Kisii County MPs skipped the Cord
rally at Gusii stadium. Only Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire was in attendance.
Low turnout was witnessed with the stadium not being full to capacity as had
been expected.
As things stand now, the Gusii
community seems to be going back to the Moi era where they voted for Kanu then
ruling party at the expense of the opposition.
During the controversial 2007
presidential race between then president Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, the
community went for both Kibaki and Raila.Word has it, the community is not
known to be in the cold.
Since the days of indepednce, word
has it, Kisii were in support of the late Kenyatta presidency and used to check
mate the Luo factor in Nyanza politics. They were appointed in plum position by
Kenyatta government and had to access bank loans at will only compared to the
Kikuyu community. However just like Moi gimmick of divide and rule in regional
politics,Kenyatta also fluelled wars in the regions against powerful
politicians.
That all is not well for CORD in
the region is no secret. After they lost the Bonchari by- election, Raila put a
brave face and returned to Gusii stadium in Kisii county after one year where
he had politicized the death of sixteen teachers and students of the Nyambunde
accident with supporters rejecting a contribution from president Uhuru
Kenyatta.
Unlike the Nyambunde accident
funeral service where Raila and his lieutenants used the pen field, this time
round he used the official podium expected to be used by Uhuru during the
official opening of the Agricultural Southern Kenya branch popularly known as
the Kisii Show.
During the funeral service, Raila
and his team blamed the government for the increased road accidents in the
country for the tragedy even after president Uhuru Kenyatta had fully
participated in their being airlifted to Kenyatta national hospital where
the government took responsibility of all the medical services bills.
Kisii Governor James Ongwae’s
support for Raila and Cord seems to be fading away. He had once hosted Uhuru
and his deputy William Ruto to the churgin of the ODM leadership. But during
the Gusii rally, he is said to have given orders that his staff close offices to
allow them attend the Cord rally which had been organized a head of the saba
saba rally.
He also attended the Kisii rally
and while welcoming Raila to his county, Ongwae whose deputy Joash Maangi and
county assembly speaker Kerosi Ondieki were abroad for official functions
said " Asante sana baba. Karibu hapa Kisii".
What is still not known is why
the Nyamira county governor John Nyagarama and Senator Mong'are Bw'okong'o and
all the elected members of parliament from the Gusii region safe for Timothy
Bosire from Kitutu Masaba and twenty out of the sixty-five elected and
nominated Cord MCAs from the two counties boycotted the event.
The rally organizers did not even
get the opportunity to use the public address system from the county maybe for
sabotage reasons and instead the team came with equipments of Omega disco from
Nakuru county several kilometers away.
The Cord MPs are Simon Ogari- ODM
eying the party's national treasurer seat, Richard Onyonka- ODm (Kitutu chache
south) , Mong'are Genni -ODM (North Mugirango), James Gesami- ODM (West
Mugirango), Ben Momanyi- ODM (Borabu) and Manson Nyamweya- ODM (South
Mugirango).
Raila was accompanied by Cord
Co-Principals Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetangula, senators Otieno Kajwang (Homa
bay) and James Orengo (Siaya) among other leaders who demanded that IEBC must
be disbanded.
The leaders also said that they
had lost confidence with the church leaders in the country who were siding with
the Jubilee government which Kalonzo said that he can not recognize them as a
government but a bunch of leaders.
Deputy leader of majority Pius
Abuki who is also an elected ODM MCA from Kitutu Central ward represented the
Kisii county assembly which had twelve out of the forty-three Cord MCAs.
The boycott of Kisii Cord leaders
which Ongwae, senator Obure and women representative Mary Otara graced has left
many in the dark as pertains to the community's next political move to have
them in one basket as exercised in three recent by elections where Cord lost
terribly.
Back to party politics, the
re-emergence of Ford-People in Abagusii politics is sending cold shivers down
the spine of ODM and Cord supporters in the region. Sources say a number of
Abagusii politicians elected on ODM ticket are now seen as trooping back to
their motherland party of Ford-People.
As ODM grapples with the loss in
three by-elections, the Jubilee Alliance on the other hand celebrated a major victory
after its affiliate party, Ford-People, picked the spoils in Nyaribari Chache
to boost the coalition’s parliamentary strength.
According to Cord’s top
leadership, the loss by ODM in Kisii, particularly in Nyaribari Chache was
attributed to political propaganda by section of Abagusii leaders that
Ford-People leader Simeon Nyachae had rejoined active politics and that a vote
for Ford-people candidate was a vote for Nyachae. To most voters, it was
another round of Raila Vs Nyachae political battle.
Sources say in the three
by-elections, Ford People spent a fortune through party patron Nyachae who is
said to have spent millions bankrolling Ford-People candidates. Sources say
Nyachae is plotting to field one of his sons for the Kisii gubernatorial seat in
2017 to inherit his political mantle.
Nyachae is known to have been
holding secret meetings with Abagusii leaders both from his party and ODM so as
to have them return to Ford-people ahead of the 2017 elections.
In the last General Election, ODM
won all the county seats in Kisii and three out of nine parliamentary seats.
South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya , Bomachoge Chache MP Simon Ogari, Richard
Onyonka of Kitutu Chache South and the thrown out Nyaribari Chache’s Bichage
won their seats on the ODM ticket. TNA has now two MPs Jimmy Angwenyi of Kitutu
Chache North and Joel Onyancha of Bomachoge Borabu.
Going by the current political
realignments in Ksii region, ODM has remained with only Ogari and Onyonka as
the only loyal MPs to the party from the whole of Kisii County. South
Mugirango’s Nyamweya defied his party and drummed support for Ford People in
the two by-elections.
Kisii Deputy Governor Joash
Maangi who is a staunch ODM and Raila supporter is also said to be having one
leg in ODM and another one elsewhere. Sources say that he has been campaigning
for Ford-people candidates in two by-elections against the wishes of his ODM
party. There have been rumuors that he is planning to ditch ODM for Ford-People
where he is likely to be a running mate to Charles Nyachae for the Kisii
gubernatorial race while others say he can as well go for the governor’s seat
himself.
Maangi is close to the Nyachae
family is at now at pains to explain why he betrayed the party by supporting
rival candidates in a silent political realignment for the 2017 Kisii
gubernatorial race. However, other ODM leaders from the region have asked
Maangi to work closely with Ongwae to form a formidable force in 2017.
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