President Uhuru
Kenyatta is expected to be on the ballot August 2017 when the first elections
will be held based on the date set by constitution. This is about 42 months
from now. The President will in all likelihood win during the first round unless
he makes big blunders in the next 42 months.
However, this time around he may
not garner the 50% plus 1 needed. He will likely go to a run-off. This is what
is today the political debate especially by the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th largest
tribes, (Luyha, Kalenjin Lou and Kamba respectively). The leaders from this
tribes who what to see one from their community ascend to the Presidency are
discussing this and there is also the Coast people forming a single
party.
Raila Odinga (ODM
Party) and Luo factor
During the 2013
Elections Raila Odinga prepared well for the elections. Everything pointed to a
victory. Raila was defeated even after working hard to bring the three of the
five largest tribes (Luo, Luhya and Kamba) all with a population of 10% or over
to vote for him. 2017 Raila will be 72 years and the generation that influences
the election of Presidents, youth 18 years to 25 years, many voting for the
first time may not accept him purely based on age.
Whereas in the past Jomo
Kenyatta ascended to office at 74 years and Mwai Kibaki was 71 years, today
digital era and with the consideration Kenya Constitution capped the age of
Supreme Court justices at 70th birthday will likely work against Raila
Candidature.
Kalonzo Musyoka or Dr.
Alfred Mutua (Wiper Party) and Kamba factor
The Kamba are now
agressive. They have a choice between the former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka
and the new face of Kamba politics Dr. Alfred Mutua. Every indicator right now
shows the transition from Kalonzo Musyoka to Dr. Mutua is currently happening.
If Wiper fields Dr. Alfred Mutua then the election could emerge as one between
Uhuru Kenyatta and Dr. Mutua especially at the age group 18 years to 25 years.
Deputy President
William Ruto and Governor Isaac Ruto (URP Party) the Kalenjin factor
One or both of the
Ruto’s will likely be on the ballot 2017 and President or Deputy President
Candidate. The Kalenjin will not likely win the Presidency 2017 but could still
be in the Executive leadership just like they currently are. Imagine a Uhuru
Kenyatta – William Ruto ticket against two Governors ticket of Alfred
Mutua-Isaac Ruto ticket.
Musalia Mudavadi (UDF)
and Moses Wentagula (FORD-Kenya) and Luyha factor
The Luyha constitute
the largest tribe in Kenya and have never come close to making a good
Presidential run. Signs that this is changing are today evident. Many of the
Luyha leaders who took the community to ODM are not interested in ODM party.
Will the Luyha field one candidate? Will they opt for the Deputy president
post.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the running mate of Uhuru Kenyatta became
Mudavadi 2017 based on how the Ruto verses Ruto politics unfold. Wentagula
could easily become Odinga running mate with an eye of 2022.
Mombasa Governor Ali
Hassan Joho and the Coastal Factor
Uniting the Coastal
people is one of the hardest things because of diversity. However, a message
could emerge that could see a majority of people unite behind the message. The
person who has shown Presidential aspirations is Mombasa Governor Ali Joho when
he stated the ODM presidential nomination should be competitve. He is best
suited to run for Deputy President 2017 with an eye to the future.
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