The
political road to 2017 presidential elections has placed Deputy President
William Ruto on a cliff hanger. The power struggle and infighting in his URP
party has sent alarm bells ringing in the TNA wing of the ruling Jubilee
coalition that he is not in full control of his own party.
Fear
within TNA and amongst President Uhuru Kenyatta’s strategists is that if the
current happenings in URP are not
handled firmly, this is likely to complicate Uhuru’s second State House
bid 2017. Sources close to some TNA top operatives now say that they are keenly
watching the political events as they unfold in URP and by extension Rift
Valley. If URP loses ground in the region as political signs are showing, Uhuru
has to work on plan B for his second stab at the presidency.
According
to well-placed sources, TNA’s worry is that should Ruto fail to contain
dissenting and rebellious voices in his party, having him as Uhuru’s running
mate in 2017 will be disastrous and could make Uhuru a one-term president.
A
number of options are being formulated. First, is to have a running mate from
Kalenjin Rift Valley to counter the rebellion. Here, two names crop up. One is
that of Baringo senator Gideon Moi, former President Daniel Moi’s favourite
son. However, the small Moi is disadvantaged on grounds that, it will be a
replica of history where like his father who served the late Kenyatta as his
vice, the same is to happen if he is Uhuru’s running mate.
Political
propaganda will then take centrestage and word that the Kenyattas and Mois are
the only ones to rule Kenya will work against such a combination. In fact, the arrangement would
unite Kenyans against Uhuru.
Then
there are those fronting for Bomet governor Isaac Rutto to be Uhuru running
mate. In fact, within URP are claims that a section in Jubilee allied to TNA
are sponsoring Rutto to be an alternative centre of power in Kalenjin politics
to checkmate the deputy whom they claim is not reliable and may decide to run
2017 for presidency to challenge Uhuru.
It
has now emerged that the ruling Jubilee coalition has been facing serious power
struggles pitting members of the two main parties - URP and TNA. Whereas while
in public, they pretend to be reading from the same script, it has been
established that Uhuru and Ruto’s troops have been secretly involved in fierce
undercurrent political games to surpass each other.
The
bone of contention is a claim that TNA has been secretly supporting Rutto to
destabilise URP. Recently, some URP MPs went public and declared that Rutto is
enjoying the support of crucial figures within TNA in a bid to measure DP’s influence
in Rift Valley.
At
one time, Uhuru hosted Rutto and some governors from the region at State House
without involving his second in command. This according to URP sources was
meant to humiliate the DP. The general belief among URP leaders is that the war
between the DP and Rutto is a politically-sponsored supremacy contest between
the two and which allegedly enjoys the backing of sections of State House.
It
has also been whispered that the plot to register a new political party to
counter URP is a plan by Rutto which enjoys the backing of State House. Some
URP MPs have been heard bragging that URP is more national than TNA which is
only in the Mount Kenya region.
In
what is now being seen as a counterattack mission by the DP recently, Adnan
Duale the majority leader in parliament took Rutto head on in the presence of
DP who was seen smiling as the two leaders traded harsh tirades. Duale, spewing
undiluted venom, is believed to have been on a revenge mission against Rutto on
behalf of the DP.
Sources
say that some URP MPs are now demanding that the coalition should call for a
joint parliamentary group meeting to sort out problems among the coalition
partners. It is feared that the meeting is likely to produce political
fireworks as TNA and URP MPs continue to fight in public.
Incidentally,
Rutto factor is also emerging in Cord whose leader Raila Odinga is understood
to be out to strike a political deal with Rutto to win the Kalenjin side and
may decide to have him his running mate and even back his presidency the way he
did with Kibaki in 2002 to teach Uhuru and Ruto a lesson.
The
pro-deputy president allies openly say it is not a guarantee Uhuru will back
Ruto to succeed him in 2023. They are now even openly complaining that Uhuru
declared he will defend his seat without consulting his deputy. It is on these
grounds that Ruto has never openly come out to support the president’s second
bid in 2013.
Aware
that Uhuru may desert him at the hour of need, Ruto has engaged in building his
own power base even in Central province where he has been a regular visitor
doing harambee meetings and attending church functions.
In
fact, Ruto has been more often in Mount Kenya region since Jubilee took over
the reigns of power than Uhuru himself. Ruto’s continuous visit in the region
with a group of his Sky Team has not been received well by current elected
politicians. They say just like he has not allowed TNA to make inroads in URP
dominated areas, he should also keep off TNA zones. URP zone where Ruto does
not want TNA to venture is Narok and where area MP Kenta ole Moitalel has been
breathing fire and brimstones. He blocked the defection of William Ntimama at
State House where Uhuru was to have received them.
Outside
Rift Valley, Uhuru option is Musalia Mudavadi. Of late, Mudavadi is said to be
out to ditch his UDF party with claims he has support of a section at State
House is rife. Mudavadi is seen as more saleable to Mount Kenya region than
Ruto. This is a nightmare for the deputy president who will do all that is at
his disposal to block any moves against him. Coming from the Luhya community
and with rebellion looming against both Jubilee and Cord in the region, the
area vote is bound to matter come 2017.
Uhuru
argument can be, in 2013, I had stepped down for Mudavadi only for Ruto to
force me back in the race. Mudavadi was Uhuru’s running mate in 2002 when Moi
endorsed him as his heir. Mudavadi had served as Moi’s vice president prior to
the 2002 general elections for three months.
Keen
observers will have noticed that Uhuru has of late been spending more nights at
Kakamega State House than Eldoret. Analysts say the head of state is out to
endear himself to the community more than any given time. When he attended the
burial of Harrison Okang’a Makaka, brother of the Kenyan High Commissioner to
Uganda Jeff Okang’a, who perished in the Utawala air mishap, many read Uhuru’s
determined outreach mission to the community.
Uhuru
is said to have no problem with Luhyas but his deputy is accused of blocking
them from key government appointments. In fact, the Mudavadi option just like
the way it was pushed in the Kibaki regime is gaining popularity within the
Uhuru team, they want him to be his running mate in 2017 and eventually succeed
him. Those selling the idea say presidency should not only be for Kikuyus and
Kalenjins.
Surprisingly,
all the options are being worked on while putting in mind the International
Criminal Court proceedings, and whether Ruto will be found guilty or not, is
neither here nor there. However, with the ICC trial chamber V (B) which is
handling Uhuru’s case giving orders that he appears for the status conference
on October 8, neither the president nor his deputy is safe after all on face
value.
The
open defiance on the referendum campaign from a sizeable number of county
governors from his URP wing of the Jubilee coalition places the DP in a big
political dilemma and internal jolt.
First,
it might show that he is not in control of his own turf, which would greatly
undermine his position and clout in the power-sharing deal under which Jubilee
was founded. The unfolding scenario also serves to fuel suspicion amongst
Uhuru’s TNA loyalists that Ruto might be playing a double-game, expressing
support and loyalty in public while secretly sponsoring rebellion from within
the URP base.
The
truth of the matter, according to some close Ruto allies and who are now his
political detractors is that the erroneous belief of URP among members of the
Kalenjin community was founded on propaganda and lies and now the time has come
for the delivery of the election pledges yet nothing is forthcoming. It is for
this reason that the URP leaders are fighting among themselves with the DP as
the main target.
A
plot to clip Ruto’s political wings and to render him politically irrelevant in
2017 has been hatched.
Rutto is the man leading the onslaught against
Ruto. In his team is the youthful outspoken Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter, his
Kuresoi counterpart Zakayo Cheruiyot, a former key player in Moi’s government.
To
show how Ruto’s political detractors are serious with their plans to tame him
politically, we have information that a new political party is on the way to
rival his URP. It is this new party that if all goes well as planned, will send
him to the political dustbin ahead of the 2017 general elections.
The
Kalenjin rebels who have been burning the midnight oil scheming say the new
party will be the final nail on Ruto’s political coffin and will send URP out
of Rift Valley.
Sources
say the brains behind the new party have proposed the name Chama Cha Ugatuzi (Party
of Devolution). It has been alleged that the yet to be formed party has the
backing of Raila. Others say that professionals and prominent businessmen
against a new party want to revamp and rejuvenate Kanu. In the last elections,
Kanu won seats in Rift Valley-dominated Kalenjin land where URP was the party
of choice.
The
deputy president does not get on well with the Moi family and if given the
opportunity, the affluent Moi family can spend a fortune to neuter him.
Back to the plot to kick out Ruto from power,
the move that seems to have been well orchestrated first saw Keter take Ruto
head on with claims that the Kalenjin community was being shortchanged in state
jobs. Keter’s attacks on Ruto did not end in state appointments, he went on
further to allege that there were multi-billions shilling scandals in the
Jubilee government.
Keter
once again launched a scathing attack on Ruto, accusing him of betraying the
Kalenjin community in the Jubilee coalition. Keter accused the deputy president
of being a renegade and responsible for the removal of Kiplimo Rugut from the
National Youth Service and vowed that he would not be silenced when it comes to
fighting for the rights of the Kalenjin community.
He
then passed on the baton to Rutto who has ever since given the DP sleepless
nights and political nightmares. It has, however, been whispered that Rutto’s
continued attack on the DP is a gameplan by some TNA officials to have him keep
the DP politically busy and on his own toes.
For
the better part of this year, Ruto’s political star has continued to dim by
day. Analysts say he has suffered a major political setback by losing some
support from the populous Kalenjin community through a well-orchestrated
campaign to discredit him.
It
has also been whispered that the plan to politically kill the DP involves even
URP MPs, MCAs, senators, businessmen and governors and shockingly even a number
of TNA politicians who believe the DP is not helping Uhuru contain Cord’s
mounting referendum pressure.
Sources
say that the Kalenjin rebellion is a threat to the DP’s political future and
that he is aware of the plans to discredit him. Those from TNA now say that
what is happening in URP is the beginning of problems for Jubilee and this
means that Uhuru will not have the Kalenjin vote come the next elections.
What
is now worrying most is that even people believed to have been close to the DP
have all rebelled and that the impression and of course the reality now is that
the DP is out of touch with his main support base.
Going
by recent political events, the DP has
ceded ground for the rebel Kalenjin leaders and going by the pace at which he
is losing ground, his political future hangs in the balance.
To
begin with, to show how troubled Ruto is, last week, he hosted a number of
Kalenjin politicians in Nairobi where sources revealed that he pleaded with
them not to rock the Jubilee government. At the meeting, the DP was taken to
task for failing to convince his own governor Cleophas Lagat and his Kericho
counterpart Paul Chepkwony to drop their referendum calls.
But
analysts now say that trouble for DP did not start with the referendum calls.
Rutto has been all along going against the DP’s directives more so on national
issues. Recently, his supporters and the DP’s supporters clashed at a Bomet
church over calls for a referendum at a function attended by the two leaders.
The
rival camps turned the church fundraiser at Marinyin Catholic Church in Bomet
Central into a shouting match after Kericho senator Charles Keter took to the
podium. Keter and four other senators had led 12 MPs in dismissing calls for a
referendum by the Council of Governors headed by Rutto.
It
was during the meeting that Rutto told the DP to his face that the Jubilee
government is lying to Kenyans and resorting to threats instead of embracing
dialogue. “As governors, we have been asking what the people on the ground are
telling us. This should not be taken to mean that we have personal differences
with the deputy president,” he said.
“We
need to think seriously as a nation and stop trying to portray governors as
supporting Cord. We are in Jubilee and will continue pushing for referendum if
the government will not tell Kenyans the truth about the percentage they
allocated the counties,” Ruto added.
But
it was the DP’s righthand man Senator Keter who was forced to cut short his
speech as the rowdy crowd shouted him down, asking him to declare support for
the Pesa Mashinani or go back to Kericho.
When
the Bomet governor took to the mic, he demanded that every leader must show
respect to others and avoid using derogatory language when advancing their
agenda. “If you want us to end this meeting, continue with such disrespectful
language,” warned the governor.
Another
incident where the DP was humiliated was in Kajiado county when Jubilee MCAs
and MPs traded accusations as the DP watched. It was the Oloolua ward rep
George Nyoike who started the war when he attacked Governor David Nkedianye
whom he accused of doing little in developing the county.
Nyoike,
commonly known as Kifaru, had ordered worshippers to have a glance at the
church entrance and witness “flowers” welcoming the deputy president. The
flowers he meant were definitely Ngong garbage. He said that the governors
should use money allocated to offer services before demanding more through a
referendum.
“I
wonder how he will convince residents to vote for the referendum for allocation
of more funds before handling the garbage issue,” Nyoike said.
It
was during the church function that some MCAs allied to Jubilee announced that
Kajiado MCAs will not support the Pesa Mashinani referendum, citing the battle
between majority 25 Jubilee members against only two Cord members in the
Kajiado assembly.
Drama
further unfolded when the governor was taken to task by residents who demanded
that he declares his stand on the referendum, but the governor pushed the
demand aside saying he would not talk politics at a church event.
Last
week, the power struggle in URP took a new twist at the Maasai Mara University
grounds after the Jubilee majority leader Aden Duale said Rutto has failed to
account for Sh184m meant for development of Bomet.
The
afternoon drama took the DP and the Tanzanian delegation by surprise. The Mara
Day celebrations in Narok county started off well but later turned into a
political supremacy battle between Ruto and Duale.
As
the two leaders traded accusations and counter accusations, the DP and
dignitaries watched in disbelief as the two leaders clashed bitterly over the
pesa mashinani campaigns. The quarrels elicited shouts and heckling from the
public with Duale telling the governor that hii siyo pesa ya mama yako bwana. (This money isn’t
your mother’s )
Duale,
a rubble rouser had accused Rutto, alongside his Kiambu and Kisumu counterparts
William Kabogo and Jack Ranguma of snubbing summons by the Senate to answer
accountability questions.
“You
can run around the country, you can call for referendum but one day you will
appear before the Senate. Isaac Ruto, you must appear before the Senate,” said
a charged Duale.
It
took the intervention of Narok governor Samuel Tunai, Senator Stephen ole
Ntutu, county commissioner Farah Kassim, MCA Kuya ole Kijabe and the deputy
president’s security officers to persuade Ruto to go back to his seat.
When
the DP took to the podium, he extoled leaders to be mindful of what they say
and do because they lead millions of Kenyans.
“Some
governors have teamed up with the opposition to distract us from delivering on
our pledges. This is an exercise with a political agenda and not meant to
improve the lives of Kenyans,” said the DP.
There
have been murmurs that the DP has been using Duale to attack rebel URP leaders
from Rift Valley and this has not gone down well with Kalenjin leaders. Others
have been whispering that the DP is also known to use the Senate majority
leader Kithure Kindiki to attack rebel Kalenjin leaders.
What
is worrying now is that even the DP has not talked of the incident as section
of Kalenjin leaders continues to pile pressure on Duale to apologise to Ruto of
which Duale has said he has nothing to apologise to the governor about.
Another
big headache for the DP is the resettlement of the evictees from the Mau
Forest. Analysts now say that the matter which has now taken a political
dimension is likely to determine the fate of URP in the vast Narok county. The
matter is now proving to be a hot potato for Ruto who has been promising the
locals that those evicted would be compensated and resettled.
Residents
led by one Philip ole Koila who is one of the members of URP say that the party
will lose ground if the matter is not handled properly.
The
DP, it is said, is being misled by Tunai on issues affecting the Maasai
community.
The
Maasai community across the political divide are against the compensation of
settlers who encroached into the forest with the intention of grabbing the
Maasai Mau Trust Land that belonged to the pastoralist community.
Recently,
the DP said that the national government was going to recover the forest and
provide alternative land or compensate the settlers in two years’ time. The
governor is now warning the DP that Mau is one of the issues that sent Raila
home and is likely to have the same effect on him and by extension the Jubilee
government.
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