Political
undercurrents are slowly tilting towards a probable change of guard in Nyanza
region if recent utterances by Cord legislator Kitutu Chache MP are something
to go by.
Richard
Onyonka’s proposal that Nairobi governor Evans Kidero runs for presidency in
2017 can not be seen as wishful thinking. Kidero, the governor of the most
populous county which in terms of geopolitics is the seat of power both
economically, politically and in social aspects, has proven to be a man who
speaks his mind political affiliations notwithstanding.
Are
the recent utterances therefore are a sign that Raila Odinga’s clout and hold
on Luo Nyanza politics may be challenged and the man to watch in this case is
none other than Kidero whose massive fund raising have sent cold shivers to
Raila’s hatchet men?
Kidero
suffered in the hands of the former prime minister which almost ended his
political career. Senator Anyang Nyong’o has since sponsored a bill to outlaw
“harambees” if this is a wider scheme to whittle the in-roads for Kidero that
is left to political historians to debate. It is imperative to note, Nyong’o
has confided to his allies that he will quit politics and concentrate on
academics after 2017.
Political
pundits argue that Kidero’s move to concentrate in the South Nyanza and his
association with Gusii Nyanza politicians may give him the political gravitas
to mount a presidential campaign if he dreams thus far, but also caution, that
he may face the same fate that almost ended the political career of the vocal
and vibrant second liberation stalwart Siaya senator James Orengo and Nyong’o
who were once sent to the political cold when they dared challenge Raila’s
political might and only were forgiven after tucking in their tails permanently
in obeisance to Raila.
One
time MP for Rarieda and a former cabinet minister and former President Mwai
Kibaki confidant Raphael Tuju is another politician who suffered in the hands
of Raila. Tuju transformed his constituency from the road networks to medical
infrastructure with the state-of- the-art mobile clinics; his only sin was to
dare challenge Agwambo’s legitimacy in a region where majority of the
population live below one dollar a day, but fanatically follow the Odingas.
Other
social political scientist argue that Raila’s game plan has stagnated and his
only hope was the bungled 2007 elections which most allege was stolen from him,
and was forced to share the “Mkate Nusu” coalition government which turned to
be a major ploy on the political chessboard. Under the Kibaki presidency, Raila
as the prime minister suffered more humiliations in the Kibaki’s hands more
than he suffered in the former president Moi’s dictatorship. Close allies argue
that Kibaki was the worst political protagonist Raila has ever faced.
President
Kibaki, the cable leaks, WikiLeaks characterised him as either a “pretender” or
a “genius”, and his close allies argue that Kibaki is both. But the most
interesting assessment of Kibaki is that of political consultant Mutahi Ngunyi
he of “tyranny of numbers” fame, who coined the phrase that Kibaki was a
“political demon”.
Other
schools of political persuasion contend that Raila’s shot at the presidency in
the 2013 was compromised by his own cronies. The bungled nomination exercise
and the lack of well organised strategy with the “finishing kick” which gave
the well financially oiled Jubilee coalition a strong finishing kick eventually
gave room for a probable manipulation of votes as the presidential race became
too close to call.
Jackton
Omwenga of Colombia University argues that Raila’s fate may have been sealed by
his close allies who never built a watertight vote bank in Raila’s strongholds
when strategically positioned, a case in point was former minister for
Immigration, the senator for Homa Bay county, Otieno Kajwang.
Raila’s
allies in the cabinet from the Western Kenya belt also did nothing to register
the rich vote region while the Mt Kenya region employed all available tricks in
the game to boost a fairly huge vote bank.
Kodhek
Mak’Onyango of Cape Town Institute of African Studies argues that the people in
Luo Nyanza region are slowly waking up to the grim reality that Raila may
never be the president at all and may yearn for change of leadership in Luo
Nyanza, where Raila is the political guru. But if Kidero is to succeed, he must
invest on political strategy that does not look or sound that he is fighting to
outsmart Raila and he must make inroads in Gusii, Nyanza and Kuria regions
which still seem to gravitate to Raila Odinga than Uhuru Kenyatta.
Kidero
must also bring on board long time politician friend now turned foe of Raila
like Dalmas Otieno whose political wisdom may be a plus, engage the political
experience of Kisii county senator Chris Obure, create a working relation with
Migori governor Okoth Obado, South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya and senator of
Nyamira county Mong’are Bw’okong’o.
Others
say that Kidero should be the unifying force in Luo Nyanza politics, bringing
together the pro-Raila and anti-Raila camps. They say Kidero has perfected the
balancing act and is accepted across the board in the region. It is the same
balancing act that has helped him play safe in Nairobi politics.
Above
all, if Kidero dreams for a higher office, Njuguna Githenji of Oriental Studies
at the University of Melbourne, Australia argues, he must be accountable for
the huge resources at his disposal as governor of Nairobi and he must showcase
his private sector expertise in transforming Nairobi county as this is the only
scorecard that will endear him to national fame other than ethnic based
parochial politics.
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