President
Uhuru Kenyatta is said to be preparing to give Kenyans a gift of the year, a
Christmas-cum-New Year surprise goodies that he hopes will impact on his
presidential bid all the way to 2017.
Aware
of this, panic has gripped the cabinet and other government institutions as
they wait anxiously to see who has satisfied Uhuru and who has not, and hence
who will bid bye to the coveted offices. Sources say that appointments are to
be made in parastatals with even word that a report by a taskforce appointed to
streamline their operations is to be implemented. Corruption and failure to
perform will determine who goes and who remains.
Several
factors are at play, including the elephant currently in the room of Kenyan
international relations – the judgment any day now by the ICC judges on Uhuru’s
crimes against humanity case at The Hague, Netherlands.
Whichever
way the judges move, ranging from indefinite postponement to citing him and
Kenya before the Rome Statute’s Assembly of States Parties, or terminating the
case and severely reprimanding the prosecution, Uhuru’s topmost team of
strategists, which includes both Kenyans and foreign political advisers have
told him to stamp his authority dramatically and forcefully on the political
and administrative scene at home.
Uhuru’s
advisers look covetously at Rwandese President Paul Kagame’s periodic displays
of executive authority and Rwandese sovereignty that include cutting ties with
France, introducing English as a new national language alongside French and,
just last week, banning the British Broadcasting Corporation from Rwanda. They
wish their boss could flex his presidential muscle like Kagame.
The
reshuffle is part of the continuing process to rebrand Uhuru after his
appearance at the ICC as a private citizen taking care of personal challenges
to the extent that he handed over power to Deputy President William Ruto for
two days. It was the first such appearance by a head of state.
The
other major factor is the three-way national referendum campaign – the
opposition Cord Okoa Kenya fronted by Raila Odinga, the Pesa Mashinani fronted
by Council of Governors’ chairman Isaac Rutto, whose political standpoint is as
the deputy president’s nemesis, and the Jubilee administration’s own strategy
which is to forestall the referendum until the 2017 general election.
If
the devolution referendum is embedded in the 2017 general election as the
seventh vote, the plot is to allow Cord to win the public vote but again lose
the secret ballot and remain out of State House and even more of a minority in
both parliament and the senate than is the case now. Caught in such this
awkward corner of a win-lose situation, the opposition will be completely out
of steam for years.
If
he, indeed, stands for a fourth time for the presidency, Raila will have the
near-meaningless consolation prize of winning the referendum, but Uhuru would
retain State House and secure the crucial second term that is widely viewed as
the legacy-building term.
The
next gameplan from there will be the battle for the Uhuru succession 2022.
To
address all these factors, plus the constant background and headache of Kenya’s
political class – mega corruption at the heart of both government and
opposition taking the centrestage - the president is planning an earthquake of
a reshuffle as Kenyans enter the 2014 festive mood.
According
to impeccable insider sources, in one believed to be a deft move by the
president, he is likely to accept the resignation of at least one cabinet
secretary and enlarge the cabinet to its constitutionally mandated maximum of
22 slots.
Kenyans
are waiting to see if Devolution and National Planning CS Anne Waiguru will be
moved. Cabinet secretaries Joseph ole Lenku (Interior) and Michael Kamau
(Transport), who are otherwise considered powerful and having the president’s
ear had completely surrendered themselves to parliament’s summonses when the
president summoned speaker Justin Muturi
and others. The two ministers fled from the precincts of parliament just a jump
ahead of their date with MPs in the then envisaged grilling.
Kamau
is also said to be on his way out as his ministry as it continues to witness
tender fraud in the ministry. It is claimed that cases of tenders fraudulently
being awarded to the correct few has doubled in comparison to the Kibaki era.
It is said he has done next to nothing
to improve the transport sector.
Perhaps,
worst affected by the power play games behind the scenes was Lands secretary
Charity Ngilu who actually appeared before MPs and put them in their place.
The
greatest losers in the shuffle could all be women, Raychelle Omamo at Defence
and Foreign Affairs Amina Mohammed. Insider sources indicate Amina could find
herself at Industrialisation, replacing Aden Mohammed, who can not wait to
leave the cabinet and return to the private sector.
Omamo,
who was previously Kenya’s ambassador to France, could find herself at Foreign
Affairs while a brand new minister, a man, is dispatched to Defence portfolio.
Education’s
CS Jacob Kaimenyi and his counterpart at Labour Kazungu Kambi could easily be
the biggest losers as the plot is to drop them and blame them for the laptop
project’s failure, poor state of industrial relations, particularly with regard
to teachers’ perennial ruckus. Kaimenyi and Kambi will also be pointed at by
the Jubilee administration as proof positive that the regime does not condone
incompetence and corruption in the cabinet.
Another
targetted is minister is Hassan Wario of Sports, Culture and Arts. Sources say
he is being accused of being sucked into local football controversies including
poor performance by Harambee Stars.
Others
likely to face the whip for poor performance are Judy Wakhungu of Environment,
Water and Natural Resources and Felix Kosgei of Agriculture, Livestock and
Fisheries. Another CS set to get the boot is Davis Chirchir of Energy and
Petroleum who has failed to impress.
Information, Communication and Technology CS Fred Matiang’i is also a marked
man and could find himself jobless after Uhuru’s re-arrangement of his
government.
Uhuru
will be shuffling his deck of cabinet cards with a number of other complex
dynamics in mind. For instance, when he recently met a number of Western region
MPs who are finally ready to throw in their lot with him, Uhuru responded
heatedly to their request that he gives Musalia Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa and
other Luhyas “something to do” including parastatal and cabinet slots.
According
to a participant at the talks, a highly charged Uhuru banged the table and the
arm of the chair he was seated on as he responded, telling the MPs to forget
someone who has flown a flag for as long as Mudavadi (who joined the cabinet in
1989) without adding much value. “Show me a project to do in Western instead,”
the president thundered.
It
is because of Uhuru’s reaction which many say was meant not to antagonise his
deputy William Ruto, a sworn enemy of Mudavadi that Luhya MPs have a soft spot
for Uhuru. Talk has been that UDF MPs have a working relationship with Ruto’s URP.
In fact, the said State House meeting with the MPs was brokered by Ruto.
The
president is certainly thinking big, and viewing the country region by region,
wanting to leave no one behind, especially those who voted against him. The
president’s biggest disappointment of recent times was not even his trip to The
Hague on October 8, it was the indefinite postponement of his hastily planned
three-day tour of Kisumu county.
A
busy schedule of events had been organised that were designed to project the
president as a progenitor of development and infrastructure projects even to
apparently hostile regions. Kisumu State Lodge was quickly cleaned up and
refurbished ahead of an unprecedented cabinet meeting that was to be part of
the tour. Prisoners from GK Prison Kodiaga were rushed to the State Lodge under
heavy security to prepare the gardens and flowerbeds.
But
then a number of top bureaucrats at the office of the president, including the
police chiefs, met a number of Kisumu elected leaders and advised the president
against the tour on both political and security grounds.
The
coming shuffle will almost certainly see a number of the securocrats and
political advisers moved or their powers sharply reduced. Presidential
political advisers Joshua Kuttuny and Nancy Gitau are particularly exposed and
vulnerable.
The
man going to be spared the sack is Treasury CS Henry Rotich who is said to have
performed well. The successful floating of the Eurobond earned him huge marks.
Sources say Rotich is now Jubilee’s top performing CS in government.
Also
likely to survive the chop is Tourism and Regional Trade minister Phylis Kandie
who despite the challenges posed to tourism by terrorism, she has managed to
stabilise the ministry. This she has done by deftly working to retain the
traditional market of Europe and America while at the same time venturing into
new markets in UAE, China and India to make up for the numbers. At the same
time, she has been reaching out to the traditional markets which saw Germany
downgrade its travel advisories to Kenya.
Her
biggest achievement so far however is the introduction of a single tourists
visa for the East African region whereby tourists now need only one visa to
tour East Africa. Kandie whose docket covers regional commerce has also managed
to launch and sign the East African Community-European Union economic
partnership agreement talks which is now waiting ratification by the partner
states parliaments.
On
the commerce side, her ministry has been spearheading marketing of Kenya to attract
direct foreign investment which economists say is having a positive impact. She
is the chairperson of the council of ministers of EAC while Uhuru is the chair
of the EAC heads of state summit.
Mining
CS Najib Balala is also safe and could even land a more powerful ministry.
There have been reports that he could be the new Lands cabinet secretary and
swap positions with Ngilu.
It
is also whispered that following the MoU, Ngilu and Balala had with jubilee,
they can only be shuffled but cannot be sacked.
Word
going round is that although Uhuru has a lean cabinet of only 18 CSs, the shock
is that even at school, students can hardly name half the cabinet off head.
There have been complaints that most of the CSs are colourless and rarely
appear in public to officiate functions in their dockets. Instead, they prefer
to spend their time in their offices and five-star hotels in Mombasa and
Nairobi.
No comments:
Post a Comment